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week puzzles Il Sole 24 Ore

A month and a half ago, with the S & P 500 to 1350 points, heading week of financial Sole 24 Ore, signed by Walter Riolfi , proposed an analysis of the situation economic prospects and equity markets that attracted my attention. At every step

Riolfi saw "signs of hope " to the point of surrender the confession that a U.S. recession was a scenario that left him " unconvinced." For the stock, according to him, " a good recovery" was to be taken into account.

That article seemed so dissociated from reality, so based on the analytical data from partial or distorted to make me write a post very critical and sometimes ironic, entitled Recession, Bags and optimism in Il Sole 24 Ore .

Five weeks later, on the eve of Easter, I again came across the book Riolfi .

What I found? An article with an encouraging opening words (" Ci sono segni di un positivo cambiamento nei mercati finanziari ”), uno svolgimento incentrato sulle positive ricadute che il salvataggio della banca Bear Stearns , orchestrato dalla Federal Reserve , avrebbe finito per avere sulla psicologia degli operatori e una conclusione lapidaria:

“ La recessione non fa più paura, non perché sia improbabile, ma perché è data per certa e, quindi, già scontata nei prezzi. ”

Ma guarda un po'. Tra i prezzi, aggiungo io, spicca quello dell’indice S&P 500 , che ha chiuso la settimana di Pasqua a 1330 – come mostra il grafico qui sotto, taken from Stockcharts - or just 1, 5% more down to where it was when Riolfi saw signs of optimism everywhere.



Between Saturday, February 16 and Saturday, March 23 I have not read the financial week - or, to be honest, I feel very inclined to do now that effort. So I do not know what happened in the head of its author.

The fact remains that the 'S & P 500 to share 1350 allowed him to consider the remote possibility of a recession, while the S & P 500 at an altitude of 1330 finally led him to write a recession is "certain and therefore already discounted in the prices . "

A recession, for Riolfi, that is 20 points short of S & P500?

More generally, what pushes Riolfi apodictic conclusions so that, from month to month, playfully dancing remains a mystery to me.

Given the track record, it is possible that the colleague can read the future. But the present and the past seem to remain obscure.

For this, simply comparing the interpretations of our eccentric and far more stable predictions made by the contract USrecession.08 (see chart below) traded in the market Intrade - as I have repeatedly written on this blog tool that enables easier and more reliable estimates on the perceived risks of recession in the U.S..



The graph shows that from mid-February - when Riolfi considered unlikely scenario of a recession - to March 22 - when the recession has become, according to him, a "certainty already discounted prices in " - little has changed in the perception of punters who place their bets on Intrade.

If the chances of recession were then estimated at about 65%, today they are 70% . A period of contraction of the U.S. economy is therefore very likely, although there is no certainty for now.

trend (see the brown line of the graph, which represents a moving average 25 days) is still essentially to point upwards, but even here there is not much new: it is about three quarters in perception of investors, the risk of recession are intensifying.

for the past, I would rather go back to my post stock markets and the risk of recession last September, where I quoted William Hester analysis for the management company Hussman Funds, according to which the 1950 to Today the average life of a bear market stock, along with an economic recession, has been in the U.S. 491 days (over 16 months).

The average decline from peak to bottom, was close to 30% , but overvalued markets (1968, 1973, 2000 - and the current cycle is rightfully part of this group) the decline has always exceeded the 35% and on two occasions three went over 40%.

The decline in progress, always measured by reference to the S & P 500 was 20% per hour of and lasted five months and a half . The bear market - according to historical comparisons - Is, in short, still in its initial phase .

argue that even if the recession is certain, it is therefore too early to proclaim that he is already in the prices.

It seems to me that the sign of a reckless rush to do this is to discount those who, until a month ago, with the reference stock index almost at current levels, the recession did not even put into consideration.

What to say? Excluding a priori hypothesis that the unacceptable Il Sole 24 Ore has a secret interest in having to tell his commentators that the stock market is always a bargain (in February because there was no recession in March because the recession has passed), the impression I have left - but only the fuzzy feeling of a casual reader - is that Riolfi like to spend time in impromptu games of interpretation by the hermetic solutions.

If so, the title week financial appears, for his column, a very apt choice. Why not call it, however, Week puzzles?

will not be an original name, but at least is clear. Readers will understand immediately what you can find: no market analysis but puzzles and abstruseness.

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Orc Attack


Gamebase64 Link: http://www.gamebase64.com/game.php?id=5449

Full title: Attack
Orc Software House: Creative Sparks / Thorn EMI
Publication Year: 1984
Genre: Arcade

fascinates me move from the city in search of small unknown locations: the 'Italy is rich in micro-countries, where it still manages to retain a part of the immense wealth of symbols and traditions of the nation.

Among the echoes of the Middle Ages, civilization of Commons and fortified towers, you can lose yourself in these recollections of the distant past of the place pretending to be vassals of the powerful, as in more predictable role-playing fantasy background. One of

situations the most picturesque medieval military life is certainly an assault on the castle and the subsequent siege in the historical reality of these took place in a much more prosaic than the imagination could suggest, but we like to build absurd stories based on cauldrons of boiling oil.

Certainly it is true that the claustrophobic siege syndrome is a subject dear to the ancient and artistic performance, to the current drift-style zombie Romero.

The designer of the Creative Sparks must have this in mind, as will undoubtedly played a Siege of Mike Singleton, the true archetype of the genre, think about it, does nothing but present a distorted view of (nearly specular) imagery typical of Space Invaders: we have a perfect inversion setting, against the medieval futuristic, and movement from top to bottom and vice versa.

Orc Attack amending and expanding the basic concept expressed by Singleton, and further personalize our alter ego worried that wanders between the trenches, or by adding intelligence and armed resources to the enemy, and now they do not just climb fearlessly the walls, but use of modular stairs to launch an attack while they threaten us constantly bombarding us with harmful by crossbow darts.

satisfaction of throwing stones from the walls vehemently devastating steps is a priceless experience, as well as see the vile orcs fall on deaf ears towards certain death. The primary purpose of the action is to ensure that these come to touch the top of the wall with their sewage zampacce, which they use to hit rhythmically making us lose precious life points and wear the precious protective battlements.

The important thing is to keep his head (literally) by using the sharp swords that the deus ex machina in turn provides us in those moments excited. The benevolent deity in some fleeting moments and random may also provide the key to the definitive end of the level, that is a good tumbler of boiling oil that all hell breaks loose, giving way to flushing of fire which spread quickly to the base of the playing area.

Through this rite of purification are devastated people and things, cleaning up the screen at a time of peace, to relax while seeing a bodycount sequence, which shows (stacking) the number of dead orcs in the battle just ended.

Sometimes, before reaching the next level, we will be catapulted into other unpleasant interludes in which entities meet new pantheon of evil. An evil necromancer you improvise a conductor, leading the dances of a horde of poisonous balloons flying slowly upward again threatening our safety, mentre in sottofondo echeggia un inquietante respiro. In altri momenti farà la sua comparsa un enorme (e deforme) giullare che ci lancerà maledizioni, sotto forma di velocissime palle di fuoco.

In questa lotta senza fine arriverà purtroppo un momento in cui gli avversari diventeranno troppi e troppo veloci per i riflessi di chiunque, è solo questione di tempo. La situazione sarà ingestibile soprattutto quando si aggiungeranno anche frotte di ragni neri, che saliranno con cupidigia sulle nostre mura difensive, che gioiranno solo quando la nostra testa china [mesta] crollerà miseramente al suolo con un tonfo sordo, sancendo così la sconfitta definitiva.

E' giusto comunque celebrare in qualche modo la memoria This lone fighter, who will run forever on a side walk, throwing sharp stones to protect us from evil.

Andrea Packages

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Henry's House


Gamebase64 Link: http://www.gamebase64.com/game.php?id=3498

Full title: Henry's House
Software House: Inglese Software
Year of Publication: 1984
Genre: Platform

I do not know whether it is a general trend or not, but my "career" gamer in the early stages is full of small things: the original games were difficult to find, GRAIL exhibited in glassy windows as unattainable trophies to choose almost by chance, only on special occasions.

The real benefactors were others in those times, like a photo shop in Via M. offering the occasional customers, in addition to original productions pseudo-marked Wizardsoft, unattractive compilation of consecutively numbered, similar to Hit-Parade which were sold to local markets with the success of the moment, the covers were amateur, made in a deliberately rough printed MPS 800 series.

So immersed in listening to Nik Kershaw and Mike Oldfield with an antediluvian tape, I came into possession of a collection of four games, among which dominated the clone of Space Invaders Avenger said, Commodore / Hal, who load correctly on average once in thirty, I had developed a set of complicated rites to facilitate loading, including tapping his fingers repeatedly with the door opening of the cassette unit and press the C key = at regular intervals.

No ritual was necessary instead to load the B-side, set to begin offering what for me has always been the "child's play" and that the unknown assembler instead of the collection was called "Henrys huose" classic of eror stump which I still remember with some affection.

's strange to think that the colorful and pixelated protagonist fitted cap can relate in some way digital avatar neonato principino Henry di Gran Bretagna, e probabilmente ne fu stupito anche il programmatore Chris Murray, quando si trovò a dover modificare il titolo e la grafica del suo "Home Sweet Home" per meglio accordarsi con la nascita del nuovo erede in un inedito e furbo tie-in; per un curioso caso del destino, il "trattamento" italiano realizzato dalla Pubblirome riportò echi dell'originale con un "casa dolce casa" che rese una piratesca giustizia postuma al prodotto di Murray.

Queste modifiche furono richieste con insistenza dalla più inglese delle software house inglesi, la English Software, che immaginava chissà quali meravigliosi incassi approfittando del lieto evento, al punto da spingersi a donare Commodore entire stations to the royal house while trying to make the beautiful game. We do not know if Charles and Diana have ever actually engaged in overcoming the ostium eighth level, what is certain that I was won over by this game totally, captivated with wonder. In the new levels

stuffed crowns, diamonds and real echoes medieval, Henry's House as part of a standard fixed screen platform whose only purpose seems to be the recovery of a number of mundane objects to pass to the next room. The vision part of the graphic novel, in which everything seems unusually large and distorted, which is typical of the imagination that only children are able to sublimate, in which the deformity is always mixed with amazement and surprise that can generate all sorts of monstrosities or wonder.

Looking for a key that is always in the most inaccessible, you can relax to a delicious series of dynamic sound effects, including the jump modulated with the height of the small Henry that can generate novel musical harmonies, the jump this enables it to become almost as epic as Mario (or rather, Jumpman) coin-op in the beautiful Crazy Kong.

The tension of the sequence of eight rooms to be addressed is interrupted by an interlude in which the rogue prince capers around laterally from one port to another malicious scrutinized by a shield. This sequence provides methods of play never predictable, the primary aim is always defined and constant, but constantly changing in ways and in the dynamism of the scenarios: moving a brush, a sink to empty, a parrot to release microsfide are some of the thousands that are constantly being proposed.

levels can not be described effectively in a rational way, it is useful rather than rely on a single stream of consciousness Joyce (e) vocatore ...

(input) big feet big boots trampling synchronous movement reminiscent of Monty Python smiley faces in constant rotation on abnormal crown above (bath) gain gigantic sink drain stopper killer drops falling then brushed teeth more effectively than by imposing Jawbreacker brushes (little) one (kitchen) fly eggs be thoroughly cooked in the mixer under a hundred arms to prepare sweet and juicy like a bit 'of the hot head alas opening cans with a special tool (stay) up and down on the fireplace listening to the TV 'author of the game Murray fundamental rhythmic cuckoo announce news on TV and then released (playroom) around the top and bottom new and old games to try and break teddy bear as a self-propelled parachute jump in areoplano cliccoso to go down slow and discreet as a ashamed, jack-in-a-box (bedroom) scale to build piece by piece fatigue attention to duck to avoid noisy sprint jumping water bags (dining room) show-cooks too stir constantly skilled cutlery for the killing on roast chicken harvester (cellar) dipped in dark tones dark skulls crows dangerous crucified saviors mocking ghost-sick iperlingua.

I think the house is the most fascinating for the human race more than others because it reveals the inner image, embodying the fears, joys and memories of a lifetime. Henry's house is full of challenges and troubling secrets, and once entered, it will be difficult to get out.

Andrea Packages

NOTE: This review originally appeared on the newsgroup it.comp.software.emulatori

Incontinence More Condition_treatment

Castles of Doctor Creep, The

Link Gamebase64 (Castles): http://www.gamebase64.com/game.php?id=1303
Link Gamebase64 (Dungeons): http://www.gamebase64.com/game.php?id=2400


Complete Title: The Castles of Doctor Creep
Software house: Broderbund
Year of Publication: 1984
Genre: Platform

We've just been transferred to Transylvania and the kind Dr. Creep offers hospitality in one of his mansions: a pity that very soon discover that the rooms are full of hostile creatures, traps and strange devices. The only idea that there is whale head to get out as soon as the castle of the evil doctor, can return home in one piece.

Like thousands of other games over the years, the plot is just an excuse to dive straight into the action and, reflecting a moment, even the background of the current products as a Quake or Serious Sam is just to shine originality, and certainly will never win a Hugo Award for science fiction.

This platform game with large elements of puzzle game is disturbing, yet compelling: the graphics are essential and ubiquitous in the black background seems to convey a vague sense of disquiet. One of the many titles in buckled pirate TCODC SIPE in magazines of the 80s, "lost in the dark" is certainly appropriate for an atmosphere dominated by silence: the sound effects are few in number and the music virtually absent. By a strange and perhaps unnecessary decision to design a few pieces of classical music are performed in Attract mode, but only after the main title appeared a second time.

Avatar that represents our vision reflects this frightened ego unconscious: we are small, insignificant, anonymous men drawn from the imagination of a preschooler, his head round the limbs and stylized (and a bit 'uncoordinated).

To find the output, represented by a door surrounded by a front-like a greek temple, we go through countless entries similar to the latter, with grates that open only by hostile onlookers KEYS, often placed in seemingly inaccessible places. Sometimes we also collect the huge keys, locks to be included in the corresponding color, there is nothing plausible or real nightmare Ed Hobbs. The platforms are connected by ladders and poles, the first passable in both directions, up and down, while the latter only allow you to get off.

Walking through the rooms, we will learn little by little to understand the complicated mechanisms that the doctor has invented to protect his property: among them affect our imagination now electrified balls da cui partono letali lampi, disattivabili solo mediante l'apposito interruttore, e teletrasporti “colorati”, che permettono di selezionare la destinazione.



Delle barriere a tempo ci impegneranno talvolta in frenetiche corse sgambettanti all'ultimo secondo, sperando di non rimanere bloccati per sempre: questo ci costringerebbe ad un vile e traumatico suicido rituale, da svolgersi mediante la pressione del tasto “restore”. Ancora, troveremo nastri trasportatori direzionabili a piacere, oppure botole che si aprono e chiudono con un curioso interruttore-semaforo.
Ben presto scopriremo che ogni meccanismo ha la possibilità di essere manipolato in qualche modo, perciò Manichaeism is not in this game / nightmare of Hobbs, and what is evil and can kill suddenly becomes manageable and may even save our lives. For example, this laser up to one second before flowed inexorably along the vertical ready to disintegrate in an instant, is now under our control and allows us to eliminate our enemies, mutandoci from victim to victimizer.

Enemies? Born to a sick mind that has seen too many movies at Universal we have an infinite number of clones of Frankenstein and the Mummy, emerging from dark crevices and niches in the head with the sole idea of \u200b\u200bhurting the little round-headed little man, Charlie Brown novel.

Playing in the couple's anguish is mitigated by a new cooperative mode, but only sometimes the atmosphere becomes almost unbearable, we observe non-Euclidean geometry as a Lovecraftian nightmare from which we would like to be woken up immediately. As it happens, Lovecraft is just the name of the last of the 13 mazes, the most difficult to deal with. In addition to these, Hobbes has wisely provided for an additional level tutorial uploaded at the beginning of the game, showing all aspects of the game itself, which we find in the advanced levels.

The nightmare with us until the end when, after discovering the exit and press the last button, our alter ego there winks and greets us warmly by the hand, until we fall asleep again and dream again Dr. Creep.

To appreciate this masterpiece, you have to overcome initial misgivings about the graphics and sound: in all sincerity I believe that the negative opinion expressed on Zzap! English (number 7, just a 65%) can also be attributed to excessive mentality "arcade" of Rignalla and associates.

a platform they were written by the thousands, but this is very special, both for the environment, but also for the interaction that exists between the various elements of levels, weapons, enemies and the protagonist / s. These should always be mixed in various ways to obtain the solution of the current room and go to successiva, e spesso verremo costretti a effettuare percorsi ciclici tra le varie stanze per ottenere ad esempio l'apertura di una sequenza di cancelli in successione. Magari possiamo contemporaneamente utilizzare i nastri trasportatori per bloccare delle mummie, mentre un laser da noi comandato può disintegrare un frankenstein e un teletrasporto azionato al giusto istante ci impedisce di fare la stessa fine. Difficile per me spiegare ogni situazione, che va vissuta come un'interessante ed ardua sfida per un cervello sempre più atrofizzato da anni di insignificanti FPS per Windows.

Fino ad un po' di tempo fa Ed Hobbs aveva le proprie pagine web su Aol in cui parlava anche della creazione di T.C.O.D.C., ma adesso non sono purtroppo più presenti. There was also news of the development of a Windows remake of this game, never completed, but maybe it's better this way, better than the magic of this little gem remains confined to the ram of the old Commodore 64.

To play is strongly recommended the excellent version made by the group Remember, or the slightly more dated of Cyberpunx. In a fit of nostalgia you might as well pull out of mothballs the old record broken by Blade Runner, but perhaps it is no exaggeration. There is also a sequel "apocryphal" imaginatively called Dungeons of Doctor Creep, made from 85 types of Quarksoft, linked to the "cracking scene" at the time. As for the level design and structure of puzzles, the original version, however, is undoubtedly the best.

Andrea Packages

NOTE: This review originally appeared on Still Alive n.6